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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE)


From: <isee@ise.com>
Date: May 21, 2013 4:45:15 PM EDT
To: <isee@ise.com>
Subject: ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE)



ISEE

ISEE

142 5/21/2013
10-Day Moving Average 107 5/8/2013-5/21/2013
20-Day Moving Average 113 4/24/2013-5/21/2013
50-Day Moving Average 102 3/12/2013-5/21/2013
52-Week High 208 12/17/2012
52-Week Low 53 7/10/2012
View/Export All Historical Data
 

ISEE [and/or ISE Sentiment Index] is a registered trademark of International Securities Exchange, Inc.

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How Much Money Do Americans Need to Make Ends Meet?

How Much Money Do Americans Need to Make Ends Meet?

The current federal poverty level for a family of four is only $23,550 a year, but Americans across the nation say they need more than double that just to make ends meet.

On average, Americans feel they need $58,000 just to get by, according to Gallup's latest poll on perceptions of annual income and necessity. This average reflects the findings that 29 percent of Americans say a family of four needs up to $50,000 in annual income these days, while 47 percent think these families need between $50,000 and $99,999. Ten percent say they need $100,000 or more.

NEW! Discover a new stock idea each week for less than the cost of 1 trade. CLICK HERE for your Weekly Stock Cheat Sheets NOW!

Screen Shot 2013-05-21 at 1.28.51 PM

The poll was conducted in mid-April and includes a random sample of over 1,000 adults across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

In comparison, Americans said in 2007 that the smallest amount of money a family of four could live on in their community was just over $52,000.

The perception of the amount of income needed appears to be heavily dependent on the household's own income and location. Adults in households earning less than $30,000 say it takes an average of $43,600, but the amount needed jumps to $55,100 among those earning between $30,000 and $74,000. Households earning $75,000 or more say it takes $69,400 to make ends meet.

Interestingly, Easterners and suburbanites tend to report higher income requirements. People in the East say it takes nearly $69,000 to get by, the highest of any region. Southerners have the lowest minimum at $50,300, followed by Midwesterners with $54,500. People in the West say they need $61,800.

NEW! Discover a new stock idea each week for less than the cost of 1 trade. CLICK HERE for your Weekly Stock Cheat Sheets NOW!

Gallup also notes, "Another factor strongly related to perceived income needs is the size of one's community. Suburbanites perceive it takes nearly $75,000 in annual income for a family of four to get by. That's roughly 50 percent more than the $50,100 that residents living in small towns or rural areas estimate is necessary where they live. Similarly, the estimate of adults living in urban areas — either big or small cities — is $53,800. However, suburbanites also report making significantly more in annual income than those in cities or in towns and rural areas. Forty-four percent of those in the suburbs report earning $75,000 or more, compared with about a quarter of city and rural dwellers."

Don't Miss: This Gun Maker Should Send President Obama a Thank You Note

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Larry Levin - Tax This


From: "Larry Levin" <larrylevin@tradingadvantage.com>
Date: May 21, 2013 8:23:55 AM EDT
To: sword7780@gmail.com
Subject: Tax This
Reply-To: larrylevin@tradingadvantage.com

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Tax This!

 
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Our thoughts and prayers are with the people in Oklahoma this morning. It is unbelievable to see such terrible devistation.

In the wake of the ongoing IRSscandal, former Congressman Ron Paul spoke on the abuse of power, and reiterated that the agency's actions were not new, and have been used for nearly a century to transfer wealth from the people, and violate the very liberties given to us by the founding fathers.While Paul's positions may be considered extreme, his words do resonate.

Paul's rhetoric is definitely outside of the mainstream discourse but his overall message - that nothing will change as long as corrupt governmental bureaucracies continue to rule unchecked - should be heard loud and clear. According to Paul:

The bipartisan tradition of using the IRS as a tool to harass political opponents suggests that the problem is deeper than just a few "rogue" IRS agents—or even corruption within one, two, three or many administrations. Instead, the problem lays in the extraordinary power the tax system grants the IRS.

The IRS routinely obtains information about how we earn a living, what investments we make, what we spend on ourselves and our families, and even what charitable and religious organizations we support. Starting next year, the IRS will be collecting personally identifiable health insurance information in order to ensure we are complying with Obamacare's mandates.

The current tax laws even give the IRS power to marginalize any educational, political, or even religious organizations whose goals, beliefs, and values are not favored by the current regime by denying those organizations "tax-free" status. This is the root of the latest scandal involving the IRS.

Considering the type of power the IRS excises over the American people, and the propensity of those who hold power to violate liberty, it is surprising we do not hear about more cases of politically-motivated IRS harassment. As the first US Supreme Court Chief Justice John Marshall said, "The power to tax is the power to destroy" — and who better to destroy than one's political enemies?

The US flourished for over 120 years without an income tax, and our liberty and prosperity will only benefit from getting rid of the current tax system. The federal government will get along just fine without its immoral claim on the fruits of our labor, particularly if the elimination of federal income taxes are accompanied by serious reduction in all areas of spending, starting with the military spending beloved by so many who claim to be opponents of high taxes and big government.

While it is important for Congress to investigate the most recent scandal and ensure all involved are held accountable, we cannot pretend that the problem is a few bad actors. The very purpose of the IRS is to transfer wealth from one group to another while violating our liberties in the process, thus the only way Congress can protect our freedoms is to repeal the income tax and shutter the doors of the IRS once and for all

Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."

---Larry Levin

 
 
Morning Market Stir
 

Morning Market Stir YouTube Link

In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Senior Market Analyst Alan Knuckman  provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates.


 
 
Student Of The Day
 

Congratulations to Celeste Leme

The Student of The Day today was Celeste Leme. She has mastered Patrick's method of High Volume Area trading and continues to successfully apply his techniques. Her hard work and persistnece has paid off. She made $795 trading gold today. 

 
NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial.

 
 
Market Advantage

 
   
OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary
---Steven Lee / Michael Shorr
The Japanese government came out today and said the Japanese economy is slowly improving. They pointed to export and factory output as evidence. The country's Economics Minister said the state is set for a "V-shaped recovery". Silver experienced very significant volatility overnight before settling into today's trade. Silver plunged nearly 9% during the first minutes of trading overnight. This is being linked to hawkish talk from Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari who warned the yen's fast decline may be hurting the economy. The dollar/yen did dive along with sliver and Andrew Wilkinson, Chief Economic Strategist at Miller Tabak & Company, suggests that hedge funds short the yen were forced to raise cash by liquidating long silver positions. The precious metals staged a big rally midday on no news wiping out all of the overnight loss.
 
One of the companies we have been monitoring is Huntsman (HUN). This is a manufacturer of differentiated organic and inorganic chemical products. We have noticed since the beginning of the month there has been a rotation out of defensive stocks like utilities and health care to more cyclical ones. One of these sectors that broke out was basic materials which can be tracked by the Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB). We have identified a major bullish reversal here. We have also noticed that companies such as DuPont have already made moves to new yearly highs. So, now we try to identify a stock whose fundamentals are strong yet has to make a break out move to the upside. This brings us back to Huntsman. We see that today it has broken through a very significant resistance area giving us more evidence of a continued move to the upside. We generated the signal to buy the Jun 20/22/23 broken wing call butterfly. Our investment is ~$0.45 and our maximum gain is ~1.55 for a reward to risk ratio of ~3.44:1. Very compelling for a stock who seems to be lagging its sector and the equity market in general.


 
 
 
FOREX: Currency Spotlight
---Ed Moya
 

Yesterday, limited price action was expected as several key banks were closed and traders had limited statistical releases or geo-political speeches to trade off of.  With German, French, Canadian and Swiss banks closed for the holiday, lackluster moves saw a major pause in the stronger dollar move. 

Yesterday, we had one minor news release regarding Chicago's Federal Reserve National Activity Index.  The -0.53 in April reading highlighted the weakest reading since January and is prompting concerns we could see a return to pre-recession levels. 

At the end of the day, the moves were somewhat limited as the markets eagerly await Bernanke's testimony on Wednesday. If we hear optimism or signs that tapering is something seriously being considered, we will see the dollar regain momentum.  We would expect its strength to be greatest against the yen and Australian dollar. 

If however, we hear a more cautious tone, and we expect to, the high-beta currencies may have limited rallies against the US currency.  The euro and pound could rally and recapture 1.30 and 1.55 respectively. 

 


 
 
STOCKS: Watch List
---Charles Moon
 

The market was flat overall as we bounced back and forth between positive and negative territory throughout the day, before extending down into the close. This continues the trend of closing in negative territory on Monday's for this year. I fully expect a rebound to wipe out the losses of today, as we have finished in positive territory every Tuesday this year so far. Look for that prevailing trend to continue with tomorrows trading action.

 
While the markets were flat overall, we saw some great activity in some stocks today. Some of the big movers were from the Energy Sector, as stocks like Trina Solar(TSL), JA Solar(JASO), and First Solar(FSLR) had huge percentage gainers today. These moves were due to JASO beating expectations as they reported narrower losses then expected. Real Good Solar(RSOL) also made a tremendous jump off this news. I caution on jumping in after these moves have been made. Generally when stocks make 60-70% jumps in the market, the correction comes into play very soon after. Don't be the trader getting in long at the highs here. Look for the pullback to enter in on a trade to reduce the risk parameters, and to take advantage of the value buys being presented. The Energy Sector has been look for a reason to explode as it has been stomped on over the last few years. This might be the catalyst if TSL can report better then expected numbers also. 
 
Expect conditions to be fairly flat again, but we can see activity come into play from the Redbook numbers. Overall we should finish in positive numbers as the trend dictates so. Be careful of being overly aggressive in this market as the pullbacks and choppy conditions have been in play as of late. Look to enter in on dips as the market is just maintaining its bullish stance. Open Position: LVLT  Stocks to Watch: INTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN PCLN BBRY FB LVLT CHKP CTXS CSCO BAC C PRU WFC GS JPM MS CMI CAT NFLX WDC GE AIG LULU LNKD DIS KORS COH FOSL CROX STZ NKE UA CHKP JNPR POT GMCR HLF HOG YUM LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM TSL FSLR JASO
 

 
 
FUTURES: Technical Data  
 

 

ES 1662.75/ 1654.25

 POC… 1656.00

 YM 15310 / 15254

 NQ 3012.00 / 3008.00
 
NOTES FROM THE PIT
Click Here To Read

 
 
COMMODITIES: Play of the Day
---Patrick Assalone
 

Gold: The sharp depreciation of the Euro and Aussie dollar during the previous week may have partly contributed to the decline of bullion prices. If these currencies will continue to depreciate against the USD, they might pressure down precious metals.

Based on our educational methodology, we are looking for trade signal opportunities in the large High Volume Area. This means we would look for long entries at 1376.80 and reversal short entries at 1396.30 with continued trading action in this range. 


 
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is a leading investment education firm that empowers traders to achieve and surpass their financial goals. More than 50,000 students have used Larry Levin's proven techniques for powerful results.

 

IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our website shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Advantage LLC provides only training and educational information. By accessing any Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click here to review the terms of services.

DAYTRADING involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those talked about in our site.






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Monday, May 20, 2013

ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE)


From: <isee@ise.com>
Date: May 20, 2013 4:45:05 PM EDT
To: <isee@ise.com>
Subject: ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE)



ISEE

ISEE

106 5/20/2013
10-Day Moving Average 103 5/7/2013-5/20/2013
20-Day Moving Average 111 4/23/2013-5/20/2013
50-Day Moving Average 101 3/11/2013-5/20/2013
52-Week High 208 12/17/2012
52-Week Low 53 7/10/2012
View/Export All Historical Data
 

ISEE [and/or ISE Sentiment Index] is a registered trademark of International Securities Exchange, Inc.

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Seeking Alpha - Bullish Percent Indexes

Bullish Percent Indexes Show Market Strength And Identify Top 3 Sector ETFs
May 19 2013, 7:57 | by Lowell Herr | includes: VHT, VNQ, VFH, VCR, VAW, VPU

The current bull market is apparent by the strong Bullish Percent Index values for both major U.S. indexes and sectors of the market. In the first screen-shot we have the Bullish Percent indicators (BPI) for seven major indexes and all are controlled by the offensive (X's or dark green background). The second slide shows BPI values and direction of ten sectors.

Indexes: While six of the seven indexes are ranging in the over-bought zone (above 70%), this does not mean that stocks will not go higher. However, it does signal caution is merited. Of the indexes tracked below, the primary one is the broad based NYSE. After a brief negative period it turned positive again two weeks ago. The NASDAQ turned positive this week, so we now have all indexes under the control of the offensive.

(click to enlarge)

Sectors: Drilling down into sub-sections of the market, we see the same broad strength as all sectors have been in the hands of the offensive for the past two weeks. As with the indexes, most sectors are also in the over-bought zone. Overall, BPI data is showing market strength from top to bottom.

(click to enlarge)

Efficient Frontier: The following graphs show the Return/Risk position for a sector portfolio where an equal percentage is allocated to each Vanguard sector ETF. As readers can see, this is not the most optimized portfolio possible as the diamond dot lies slightly southwest of the optimized (small red dot) portfolio. A later screenshot shows what to do about optimizing such a portfolio.

(click to enlarge)

Sector Rankings: The following table shows the rankings of the sectors if a 50% weight is assigned to the most recent three-month performance, 30% weight allocated to the most recent six-months, and 20% to the security volatility. An exponential moving average is used to calculate performance percentages.

While VHTVNQ, and VFH have been dominating the top positions, VCR moved to the number one spot this week.

(click to enlarge)

Buy-Hold-Sell Recommendations: If one started with an equal percentage allocated to each of eleven Vanguard sector ETFs, the following table shows some buy, hold, and sell recommendations in order to optimize the Return/Risk ratio. VCR and VHT show up as buy opportunities while VAW and VPUare the two ETFs that could use some trimming from the portfolio.

Not readily apparent from these graphs are the constraints placed on both the asset classes and individual securities in order to build a strong portfolio. Of course this particular portfolio is limited as only sectors are included. ITA Portfolios include broad based ETFs as well as individual stocks.

(click to enlarge)

Disclosure: I am long VFHVHT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Larry Levin - Monday Misanthropy


From: "Larry Levin" <larrylevin@tradingadvantage.com>
Date: May 20, 2013 8:22:51 AM EDT
To: sword7780@gmail.com
Subject: Monday Misanthropy
Reply-To: larrylevin@tradingadvantage.com

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Monday Misanthropy

 
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After more of the same last week....good news is good news and bad news is good news for the equity markets, it's time for a little Monday misanthropy.

 This time it's directed at poor Bernie Madoff, who once had billions of dollars, but now he makes $40 a month doing menial prison labor. Poor Bernie! Alas from Hedge fund billionaire to low paid worker with minimal job security as he reported being moved from a clerk in the commissary to now taking care of the telephone and computer systems.

 It's a far cry from his former life and  like so many American's who can't find a full time gig, he's only is allowed to work for a few hours a day. Of course this gives him lots of time to think about his situation as he's serving a150-year sentence after pleading guilty in 2009 to stealing $17.5 billion from investors.  

 CNN Money spoke with him but he didn't have any money in his prison phone account didn't have any money in it, so had to call collect. So what did inmate #61727-054 at Butner Federeal Correctional Complex have to say?

According to CNN MONEY:

 "I'm usually up at 4:30 in the morning because I can't sleep,"  

 He's especially haunted by the 2010 of his oldest son, Mark, who hanged himself on the second anniversary of his father's arrest.

 "I was responsible for my son Mark's death and that's very, very difficult," he said. "I live with that. I live with the remorse, the pain I caused everybody, certainly my family, and the victims. Obviously, the main concern that I have is being away from my family. Married for 50 years, I had a very close family."

Bernie's tale of lament from behind bars doesn't really resonate. 

Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."
---Larry Levin

 
 
Morning Market Stir
 

Morning Market Stir YouTube Link

In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Senior Market Analyst Alan Knuckman  provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates.


 
 
Student Of The Day
 

Congratulations to Pieter DuPlessis

The Student of The Day today was Pieter DuPlessis who took $140.00 out of the market today in his live account!  Someone is enjoying the weekend already!!!  Nice job!  Let's take a look:

02:32 pm Pieter DuPlessis: $140 live
02:39 pm Pieter DuPlessis: I'm done for the day, thanks. Have a great weekend all

 
NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial.

 
 
Market Advantage

 
   
OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary
---Steven Lee / Michael Shorr

All in all a very "busy" week if you were to look at the economic calendar, and what really happened?  Not a whole heck of a lot.  It was the same old adage in equities that good news is good news and bad news is good news.  Either things truly are getting better especially here in the U.S. or the money machines will be turned on full bore perhaps even in the UK and the eurozone.  China's wage environment is experiencing some mixed signals.  Real adjusted wages at non private Chinese companies grew at a 9% pace in 2012.  Wages in the private sector grew at 14%.  So, we are seeing wages growing at near or over double digit growth while the pace of economic growth is decreasing.  Good for the earner, but not so good for the employers.  Manufacturers may really feel the heat should this pattern continue.  An interesting poll of investors, analysts and traders conducted by Bloomberg showed that more than two-thirds believe that the U.S. economic recovery is "sustainable".  Only slightly higher than 25% of those polled see a return to recession within two years.

Today I want to expand upon the lesson we talked about yesterday highlighting the properties, advantages and disadvantages of vertical spreads.  I want to introduce the concept of combining multiple vertical spreads together as one strategy, namely, the butterfly.  There are myriad ways that we in class use multiple vertical strategies to generate trade signals.  These signals can be directional, they can be used to take advantage of differences in implied volatility across different months, or they can be a way to be "short" implied volatility without having the unlimited loss exposure associated with simply selling options.  Please attend our classroom discussions to hear more on how we implement these constructs.  
 


 
 
 
FOREX: Currency Spotlight
---Ed Moya
 

Japanese investors primarily are the ones holding Japanese bonds.  It should not surprise anyone that the government is concerned that with the tremendous run the Nikkei is having that long-term yields may climb higher and that might disrupt the confidence in government bonds. 

Rising Japanese yields may not be supportive of the BOJ's QE plan to reflate their economy.  If yields continue to rise, this will disrupt the USDJPY move. This week we will have a few events that may provide further bullish momentum for this trade. 

Wednesday, we will learn if Japan's trade balanced improved.  We will also hear from the BOJ.  Continued comments are expected to support the April 4thmeeting and announcement of the central bank's massive easing efforts. 

As long as Japanese yields do not continue to rise, we may see continued momentum with yen weakness trade.    


 
 
STOCKS: Watch List
---Charles Moon
 

The markets finished the week strong as the Dow and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs once again. The CBOE Volatility Index(VIX) closed below 13, as this is showcasing very little fear in the market. We should continue this bull run with minute pullbacks, as the steady climb to new highs continues. I would look for the markets to start slowing up here as we are wrapping up earnings season.

 
JC Penny(JCP) saw a sharp drop in their stock price as they showed a worse then expected decline in sales and revenue. With former CEO Ron Johnson gone, the stock had steadily climbed from their 52 week lows. With a huge drop in sales from an alienation of their coupon driven consumers, the company struggled to recover the lost sales revenue. Seeing how retail stocks have recovered strong the past quarter, I would look for this stock to struggle to recover in the upcoming weeks. If we don't see the continued slide, then I would expect the stock to stay range bound here.
 
Look for the financial sector to continue helping this drive to new highs in the market. I expect stocks such as JP Morgan(JPM), Morgan Stanley(MS), and Citibank(C) to all have decent gains in the upcoming weeks. Look for the pullbacks to get in on the trend. 
 
We should see a small drop in the market tomorrow as we typically finish negative on Monday's, and I would expect as much tomorrow. I would expect fairly flat conditions overall. Look for the rally to come in on Tuesday, as we have finished in positive territory ever Tuesday so far in 2013. Stocks to Watch: INTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN PCLN BBRY FB CTXS BAC C GS JPM MS CMI CAT NFLX WDC GE LULU LNKD DIS KORS COH FOSL X QCOM STZ NKE UA CHKP JNPR POT GMCR HLF HOG LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM


 
 
FUTURES: Technical Data  
 

 

ES 1662.75/ 1654.25

 POC… 1656.00

 YM 15310 / 15254

 NQ 3012.00 / 3008.00
 
NOTES FROM THE PIT
Click Here To Read

 
 
COMMODITIES: Play of the Day
---Patrick Assalone
 

Soybeans: USDA announced a sale of 138,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination this morning. Exporters also reported a 120,000 MT sale to China. All except 18,000 MT of that business was for new crop delivery.  Informa is now projecting US soybean plantings at 78.286 million acres.  That is a cut of 171,000 acres from their previous estimate, but still 1.2 million larger than the USDA Intentions figure.  November futures continue to lag old crop (+9 cents) due to concerns about rising global supplies, and potential acreage gains arising from late corn planting.


 
TA Logo

is a leading investment education firm that empowers traders to achieve and surpass their financial goals. More than 50,000 students have used Larry Levin's proven techniques for powerful results.

 

IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our website shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Advantage LLC provides only training and educational information. By accessing any Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click here to review the terms of services.

DAYTRADING involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those talked about in our site.






This email was sent to sword7780@gmail.com by Trading Advantage
111 W Jackson Blvd | Chicago | IL | 60604